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BLOG: 2007-2008 Active BLOG
We've all seen some of those other sites, their 'blog' started about six weeks ago and has maybe 12 posts. Well, they've to start somewhere...
Here at the CoinMine, we've been analyzing things in quite a bit of detail for the past eight years; and we've been spot-on more than a random roll of the dice would indicate. Browse below through a few hundred pages of observations, picks, calls, diatribes, rants, and raves and mine your own nuggets.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The mercury Mewl - The Internet's Favorite Demi-god
6.13.08 Lithium Somebody asked about lithium. Her was my take in January 05:
--- Alternative Energy: Lithium
Somebody doesn’t want this lithium-based energy developer gaining traction:
Nevada has very productive lithium mines. Remember, the di-lithium crystals powered the starship enterprise…
Alternative Energy: The difficulty is not the technology Rather, the application.
In 1973 the United States Postal Service began converting its fleet of service vehicles (at the time, the largest non-military fleet in the world) to compressed natural gas. However, neither Ford nor its vendors nor any other group could develop a suitable converter package with suitable maintenance and operation requirements. The Postal service completely abandoned CNG technology for the entire fleet by the end of the millennium. Currently, the entire fleet runs on standard fuels; the focus fro the future lies on two technologies: biodiesel and electric (hybrid) vehicles.
----- When I looked a little into Whistler at the time, I found this little gem:
http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-132389255.html
Naked shorting, unauthorized listing on a minor exchange, and resultant Company pulling out of the exchanges. AFAIK, they went private.
a firm driven off their course by the naked shorter and market shenanigans.
And a Lithium/energy in a post a few weeks later: April 05:
4.4.05 Oil and Energy Plays That are currently (or very recently, or will be) in my holdings:
Vectren: VVC Nicor: GAS Kerr McGee KMG Enerplus resources ERF Shaw Group: SGR Chevron: CVX Idacorp Holding IDA Ormat Industries: ORA
However, a couple of these are looking overextended imo and I have lightened up. Something that has shaped my outlook is that here in the western US power production is only half the problem. Power transmission is the other half, thus energy services companies are worth considering. Something else to keep in mind is the large number of firms that now have an energy division. For example, NEM, ABX, and CAG (Conagra foods) all have power interests in nevada.
SGR They took on a huge amount of debt when they swallowed ICF and their share price took a stutter. I bought in then b.c. I thought it was a good fit and liked the long term outlook for their model. Perhaps now , however, they’re fully valued.
ORA is an interesting one. I don't own it since the IPO just came out late last year. However, I have been following the company for a couple years now and am familiar with some of their property. I see them making some very shrewd decisions. Any time the Israelis start to aggressively build a market share in the state I get interested. ORA and CAG actually have experimental research plants next door to each other. Most ironic, many of the geothermal taps were actually developed in the 1970s when wildcats placed wells throughout the hinterlands looking for oil and gas and instead hit hot water. IDA Run of the mill utility and resource holding company http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2003q3/2003_08/1030829.012026.mercuryee.htm CAG Am rotating out of MON into CAG. Mon has done just fine by me, and am looking for a sector rotation to spice things up a bit.
Date: Tue Jun 25 2002 00:05 THE WATCH LIST Canadian trusts consider taking a look at Canadian energy holding trusts and interest pass-throughs. The Canadian government has within the last year rescinded some of the previous obstacles to foreigners from investing funds in these trusts and IPTs. For instance, the funds once required no more than 50% foreign capital -which mandated constant rebalancing and inefficiency. Things look much more orderly now for foreign investors.
http://www.primewestenergy.com/unitholder.aspx http://www.globeinvestor.com/series/top1000/tables/units/2004/ COS-UN.TO
(Fun with Canadian Resources law) Lawhttp://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2004q2/2004_06/1040601.204507.mercuryee.htm
OTHER TECHNOLOGIES
Lithium Too bad chemtalle foote doesn’t trade. I am looking for a decent lithium play. http://www.chemetalllithium.com/lithium/lithium.nsf/vwFiles/Homepage/$FILE/home.html Bio-Diesel also see CAG ...also on the watch list: SU, crystalline quartz piezoelectricity
Thankfully, I stayed (mostly in the stocks below in the accounts I discuss w/ friends and family). They’ve been happy…
STOCK THEN NOW VVC 23.5 30 GAS 34.5 43 KMG went higher than was bought out by Andarko (APC); APC 38 77 SGR 20 63 CVX 56 94 IDA 28 32 ORA 15 53 CAG 26 23 (cant win ‘em all) MON 30 137
Not too shabby. As it turns out, you could have gotten these stocks cheaper two weeks after my post in April 05, but then they all (except CAG) went up from there.
Not so lucky: I never did buy SU at 13 (now almost 70)
crystal power!
Lithium summary Basically, I gave up on Lithium once I realized the big boys had already sewed up the market. Some of these metal/energy markets are so thin as to be essentially closed systems. When the presserazzi speak (on behalf of the PTB) about the lousy ‘speculators’ ruining the current world b.c. they’re running up the POO, what they really mean is lets drum out the regular people from the market and save all the profits for ourselves.
At some point in late 04, do believe, I posted on my trip to Silver Peak and on the lithium mining by ChemtalleFoote. Regrettably, can no longer find that post nor the notes. And the more I think about it, around that time I also posted some info from USGS or NBM regarding the rarity of lithium and the difficulty in mining such. Cant understand why I am no longer able to find the information. The lithium cartel is obviously more advanced than OPEC and removed my posties. Fwiw.
6.6.08 Interesting Action in Oil Today Looks like Israel locked in the date for the attack on Iran once they briefed Obama on his genuflection tour in front of the AIPAC last week.
6.5.08 Just Browsed the Metallica Resources (MRB) Circular
Things I like: Cut-off number for reserves at the Peak Mines: $525 cost per ounce gold. Cut-off number for reserves at the Amapari Mine: $600 cost per ounce gold. Cut-off number for reserves at the New Afton Mine:$450 cost per ounce gold.
Granted, those costs will suffer the standard 12% rate of inflation as with everything else, but looks good from this monitor.
Also, MRB - like Yamana - (and unlike IAG) seem to have done well incorporating the mergers and acquisitions of Peak Gold and other firms under their umbrella. A dicey proposition, always, but one that can pay-off and apparently is doing so right now. After all, they're currently carrying 13 independent subsidiaries.
- Expected mine life of Cerro San Pedro.
Things I am unsure about: The number of share options held by senior management. Need to research the average percent of float held by the senior management team for a mining company in exploration stage (2007) versus one in production stage (2006).
The Annual Report isn't quite as 'grabbing' as some of her competitors. The 'Sustainability Profile' reads particularly stilting and sophomoric. Then again, for a freshman effort, not too far off the pace.
Things I don't like: At Cerro San Pedro the The Waste to Ore ratio is too high; so is the silver to gold ratio (though I am happy remaining overweight silver for the foreseeable future);
They dropped their Risk Free interest rate assumptions from the 2006 estimates. This financial forecasting error can ripple through a number of other expectations;
Career Politicians.
5.31.08 Just Read the Crystallex (KRY) 2007 Annual Report What a disaster, especially compared to Yamana (AUY).
It's all to easy to read the The Management Discussion and Analysis - especially the three page section discussing risk factors (those three pages which focus on the Venezuela-specific risks), and pan the company for not realizing that the entire portion of this company's finances and fortunes, both current and future, rests on this fulcrum. Other information pertinent to the operation now, largely, proves irrelevant. The three pages, out of 66 total in the report, now undermine every other statement and postulate.
Interestingly enough, although the mining operations at La Victoria purportedly suffered because the lag time it took to receive a drill compressor replacement from the US, KRY has kept most the majority of other equipment in Europe, Africa and the States. Perhaps this tidbit should have tipped the reader that management didn't put forth enough trust in the locals to even rent a storage shed adjacent to the property which supposedly would provide the company's future.
Note to Management: Don't entirely rely on the agreements with the government for the source of your livelihood even if the agreement has a fancy title like: Mining Operation Contract. Smells like Adhesion Contract. But who can the management appeal to, the shareholders (all 551 one of them)?
5.28.08 Lucky Ju Ju/Neptune Beach Pinball Museum Grand Opening in Next Friday. Looking forward to it! I donated a machine myself, the 1976 Chicago Coin Pinball -Old Chicago. Back glass was a 10 and the Playfield a solid 9.
http://www.ujuju.com/item.php?id=636
With this gallery opening, combined with the Pinball Hal of Fame in Vegas, the WEST coast can now lay claim to pinball capital of the world - stolen fair and square from Chicago, Il.
5.27.08 Listened to Ben Stein today He blamed the increase in price of oil, mostly, on the 'speculators'. Now for purposes of review, speculators are the little people like you and me who happened to get lucky by placing a bet rightly that the government and their paid economists are destroying the country in every manner possible. This includes of course, artificially driving up the price (through inane policy and regulations and other gross mismanagement) of the things you need to conduct your life - such as food and energy. In turn, the government shills such as Ben Stein, are actually calling market action by the commodity traders as 'near treasonous' (his actual words). Typically one hears this type of language when a guy begins to realize the price he was paid for his soul isn't keeping up with the rate of inflation, and is angling for a re-negotiation.
5.27.08 Well, it taken a while.. but we've begun to put some new inventory on our website.
5.24.08 Just Read the Yamana Gold (AUY) 2007 Annual Report Looks pretty good. Mostly impressed how well spread out - geographically - the asset base is spread out through a number of mining-friendly countries. Furthermore the core production is increasingly spread across a larger base rather than from just a couple key mines. Diversifying production hedges against production interruption risk.
The mining story over the last two years, above and beyond the rising cost of the asset (which has been offset by increasing costs of production) turns out to be increasing production shutdown due to sheer lack of qualified equipment and operators (worldwide), electricity (S. Africa) or unfortunate turn of political fortunes (S. America - and increasingly, N. America [USA]).
Random Notes Alumbrera - 399 million pounds of copper at current cash production costs of $1.42/lb.
Page 27 - Too bad neither the photographer nor the employee had the foresight to remove the soap container (or whatever it is) laying atop the open-spoon ore samples - does not comport with sampling handling quality control.
Acquisitions. Amazing, really, the company was able to pull off acquisition of so many companies and properties in such a short period of time without major wrinkles throughout the organization. Must be seen as a credit to the management.
5.18.07 Sell Your Oil Now
The future is moving AWAY from your product and TOWARD these commodities: water, DNA, precious metals and fissionable material.
The five major reasons the US made the serious (nation altering) decision to erect permanent bases in the middle east:
1. Drive up the price of oil in the short term so that the Arabia/US axis can realize the most gains in the short term before Arabia is out of oil and the world moves away from sweet crude as the primary power generation source. 2. When Arabia is out of oil (and thus out of order), we need regional military bases to support the junta against popular uprisings of a justly outraged native population and increasingly strident outside forces. 3. Use permanent bases in the region to prevent approximately 25 countries within 3,500 miles of Baghdad from erecting nuclear facilities. These nuclear facilities can A) produce weapons (checkmate against future military invasion); B) Produce power and replace dwindling oil supply; and C) Split water molecules to provide hydrogen for additional secondary power AND drive saline hydrolysis of water/hydration synthesis/membrane reverse-osmosis/electrodialysis/carbon injection-sump storage 5. Prepare and perfect the system (invasion and establishment of permanent bioregional firebases and internment camps) for export into central Southern America.
The last 100 years of war were fought over oil, the next 100 over water, everything after that will be disputes governing control of DNA. The world's DNA database currently resides in the Amazon jungle. Whoever is able to exert complete control in the region becomes the next great superpower. Hence, things have started to get interesting - and will continue to do so in ever increasing degrees - throughout Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela and Brazil. (Yep, those countries control the world's freshwater basket too!)
You read it here first (and only)...
5.15.08 REAL ID ACT Thankfully, a few states are attempting to delay the leviathans forceful entry into our personal identity and rights to assemble and travel.
Of course, the next democratic administration will nanny us to death: http://blogs.rgj.com/poweron/2008/05/national-id-deadline-passes-w-whimper.html
5.14.08 More on Northern California Real Estate: A Discussion
Someone posted this:
California Foreclosure Stats
Source: Bruce Norris speaking at a meeting Tuesday
night. You won't see that quoted data in the free section. Bruce is on top of
the market and has accurately made timely contrarian predictions in the face of
top economists and industry leaders. He recommended staying away from Vallejo
until the dust settles but did reco some areas in the northern and central
valley. (don't recall specifics) I have independently read/seen/hears much of these numbers.
This month, for the first time in five years, I've seen out-of-towners doing recon on REO homes in the local neighborhoods (NE SF BAY). Talked to a couple yesterday. Could be a headfake, but the market might turnaround much earlier than the 'experts' are expecting.
Now, I don't proclaim to know much about RE as the experts pretend to, I simply
am beginning to put some of my $ there, after being out of the RE market for
many years. Easiest way to learn something is to place some skin in the game.
Lessons follow immediately.
Now, Folks suggest staying away from Vallejo and suggest looking at Benicia as a nearby substitute; here is a good example of the position:
As a long-time real estate investor and student of that
market, I remember during the last serious and very prolonged downturn that, in
the disastrous Texas and Arizona real estate markets, there were two waves of
bottom-fishers (scalpers / speculators) which were also foreclosed upon, before
the third wave succeeded, mostly because of the timing, in hanging on long
enough to make good money.
Well, Benicia is fine; just a few minutes away. But the weather isn't as nice
(more constant wind through the Carquinez strait). where's the upside? Downtown
has already been renovated with full occupancy. We have acquaintances who own a
store downtown - where is the room for growth? (and residential cashflow -
doubtful!). Looks set for a fall from this vantage. Vallejo has room to
re-habilitate, especially commercial (residential will just now begin to barely
cashflow again; after a steep 40% decline in 15 months) but it will take
generations; if ever.
A vulture capitalist could simply flight on in and buy out others' mistakes.
My take and persuasion guides sight on value where others see only problems.
Someone's mistake provides the next man's opportunity.
Yesterday and Today I've been perusing those Chinese Earthquake photos.
Sobering. And my family and friends in Northern Nevada are just now finding it
difficult (just starting to look) to get earthquake insurance given the
'apparent' increase in odd tremor behavior over the last few months.
Which is more challenging, RE or PM? Over 5, 10, 25, 40 year horizons? 5.9.08 A Cooling Planet - Record Temperature Drop Last Year by Record Amounts
Hadley, NASA GISS, UAH have released updated data. All show that in the past year that the surface of the earth has DROPPED in temperature, with the steepest drop in temperature EVER recorded and the steepest change in temperature - either up or down - EVER recorded!
Reported record drops in surface temperature all over the Earth.
Record cold temperatures recorded in China, Colorado, Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Chile, Iran, Mexico, Australia, Greenland and Antarctica Snow cover increases to record levels, not recorded since 1966, in many places of Siberia and North America.
Ice in the Antarctic grows to RECORD levels; over 1-20 cm thicker in one year over much of the ice coverage. (Source: Canadian Ice Service, Ottawa.)
China has worst winter in a century. In Bali the weather was been so severe many towns went days without power due to record levels of ice and snow.
OF course, we 600 Million dollar think-tank.
5.9.08 Ending the run-up in Food Prices Of course the main stream press (Ministry of Truth) is blaming the 'runup' (eventually 'crisis') on the speculators - those folks like us who believe in, and participate, in a free market - commodity or otherwise. Eventually the oligarchy will fill the yearnings of the great unwashed/uneducated international socialists by convincing them that 'central pricing' is the solution. Implemented by the world governmental organizations, naturally.
5.9.08 Energy Prices Impact on Food Prices Right now there is approximately 6 cents of wheat in a box of wheaties. The rest of the price is essentially the price of fuel (packaging and transportation), which have massive current inflationary pressures. Other costs in a box of wheaties (advertising and marketing) are in deflationary environments. What food groups can we expect will experience the next round of price increases based upon cost increases to production inputs? First thing to look at is the return ratio between the energy required to produce the food unit versus the energy returned by the final food product. For example, chicken has almost a 1:1 protein ratio. Eggs have a lesser percentage but have higher handling and transport costs. Meat has almost a 10:1 ratio. That is for 10 units of protein put into a cow, the yield is only one unit of protein. Hence there should be no surprise that Pepperoni rose 20% in the last 30 days. Increase in water, feed and transportation costs will push on cattle pricing. So, the cost of cattle, one of the tow underperforming sectors of the commodity industry (along with timber) should now begin to rise, right? Not necessarily. When fuel prices rise significantly, folks stop eating out as much to save money - or more likely - to continue to fill the gas tank and otherwise absorb increasing personal expenditures. In turn, the folks don't walk down the street to browse retail stores/window shop/go to a movie before of after a dinner out. In turn, the lack of business at restaurants, especially walk in business, pinches the revenue stream while at the same time these businesses are also absorbing higher fuel and commodity prices. Hence the retail stores and restaurants begin laying folks off, further reducing the pool of individuals who can afford a night out at the shops. Therefore demand for meals, especially beef, will fall commensurately as beef prices rise and producers have more elasticity in poultry pricing. In the final analysis, 1) Industry: Look for restaurant retailers to fall as a sector while those serving vegetable entree's outperform. Look for pricing elasticity to support poultry industry over beef industry. 2) Sector: Poultry producers have felt the crunch of feed and absorbed those costs, resulting in a first quarter loss for Tyson Foods (TSN). Although TSN has outperformed Dean Foods, they have lagged behind Smithfield (SFD). So let's look more closely at the two sector leaders. 3) Technical: Smithfield has already had a nice run-up in price during the past 30 days and is now trading at the upper end of its range. TSN, however, looks more like a short term potential buy as the price has declined on dwindling volume and is closer to Moving Average support than Smithfield. Medium term the TSN stock price has formed a nice cup and handle over the last year and may head higher from here. That possibility, of course, depends upon larger market action which has been indecisive over the past 12 weeks. 4) Intangible: Bird Flu vs Mad Cow Disease are a wash on the hysteria scale. "Korea worried about US beef imports" is the latest (this week) I've read about either. Action: Bought a small position in TSN @17.30. 5.9.08 More on solar research Another angle to conducting due diligence: look for miners with access to silver-tellurium - a requirement for solar panels. Mexivada is one miner holding the resource. http://www.mexivada.com/s/Home.asp 5.8.08 Central Sun Mining Target Raised To C$3.10 From C$2.85 By Blackmont. Alas, I bought higher than that... 5.8.08 UBS to launch platinum exchange-traded notes http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=559740 5.8.08 So far so good on the CDE trade for HL HL up less than 1% today but CDE up over 5%! 5.7.08 Sold Hecla (HL) Basically I rotated out of HL and into CDE (bought a couple days ago). Didn't like the news regarding the union's supposed choice for socialization of the Venezuela mine. There is a good chance (but under 50%) IMO that the news is disguised to shake out weak hands (like me since I bought short term, as a trade) before the stock shoots up for the insiders. However, GRZ and KRY (which I still have half of the original an decent trading position) both in Venezuela, have been massacred in the last couple weeks. Don't want to take the chance with a profitable (20%) trade in HL made in just a month. 5.6.08 Getchell Mine, ABX/NEM JV has third fatality in under a year. Fatality clusters suggest management problems. 5.5.08 General Molybdenum releases pre-feasibility study for Hall-Tonopah-Liberty Project http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2008/05/09/news/mining_news/mining76.txt 5.5.08 Went to the Vallejo Coin Show Yesterday A smaller affair than the Sacramento soiree. The Vallejo Numismatic Society does a great job with this show IMO. 5.3.08 Went to the Sacramento Coin Club Show Yesterday Dealers set up about 40 tables. The hosting coin club put on a Great display, thanks for that. Traffic was slow, possibly reflecting a couple facts (IMO). For one, the retail coin market has been slowing down. Folks don't feel as rich as they did a couple years ago, discretionary income has disappeared - if not in their 'home value' than certainly in their monthly cash flow as costs have substantially risen, hence the discretionary income necessary for coin collecting isn't there as it had been for the last seven years. Additionally, this show was just a few days after another Sacramento Show, put on by John McIntosh. Don't know the politics behind the situation that presents two similar size/type shows within a fortnight of each other, but can't help imagining that it dilutes buyer traffic/interest. First time I've attended a show at this particular venue, the Dante Club on Fair Oaks Blvd. Other Sacramento venues I've been to, such as the Red Lion at Arden, Cal Expo or the Convention Center at least had the possibility of capturing some walk-by or drive-by traffic. Can't see how this current venue has that possibility, however. Also, I understand that Sunday is actually a better day for traffic at a Sac coin show than Friday (I was there @12-3). Had some trouble finding what I look for, though did chat and buy from a dealer whom I never met previously, Virgel Nickell out of Santa Ana (great name for a dealer). He makes a market in National Bank Notes (surprisingly, not nickels). I told him I saw a Lovelock National note go through Ebay last week or two (he doesn't have a computer). Apparently only Tonopah Bank Notes are more rare. Didn't buy any notes (the prices have gone crazy in just the last three years), but he did have a number of casino chips that I was interested in (prices have also gotten up there). I picked up nice set of Tonopah Club casino chips from him. Otherwise, purchased a few 'good for' tokens and a couple of erotic tokens from one dealer and a few pieces of ephemera from John Heleva. Bruce Braga (nice guy) spent some time teaching me and another gent a bit about watches; both of us had just received older pocket watches in the last week. Hope they all had more traffic yesterday. Off now to the Vallejo Show... 5.1.08 Bought CDE About 2.99. Haven't owned this stock since 2006. It outperformed in 2003 and has just been a drag on the gold indices ever since. Hoping it turns around, but am willing to place rather close stops on this trade - close as compared to most my trades, that is. 4.30.08 Just read an article About families selling their junk on-line to pay bills. Never used LiveDeal.com and AuctionPal.com before. I'm looking into auction pay right now - seems a little buggy on first blush. 4.30.08 KRY - down 45% Wow, Talk about getting lucky - selling half of KRY before it gets slammed on news Venezuela will nationalize the mines! Should have sold all of it... 4.28.08 Ugh, gold stocks gettin hit again Sold half my KRY, one of the more most recent purchases. Keeping the silver index ETF: SLV 4.27.08 Nevada Republican Ends in disaster/recess. Mostly b.c. there wasn't enough show of hand for transparency and wit to moral compass.
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080426/NEWS18/80426047&OAS_sitepage=news.rgj.com%2Fbreakingnews
Only fitting, look at the state's republican 'leader': JimmyBoyGibbons. Sure, I've been reporting on his slime for years; but now the mainlining press is finally willing to give the devil his 15 minutes and report on investigations into his morass by the FBI; reports of sexual battery; gross mismanagement of the state budget/dereliction of duty; general incompetence; and this weekend, the fact his wife is leaving him. Luckily NV is a no-fault divorce state...
4.26.08 Coverage of Solar Sector
http://www.bizmology.com/2008/04/24/first-solar-its-shares-are-worth-more-than-2-barrels-of-oil/
The solar sector Exchange Traded Fund, TAN, started trading this month.
Generally I am only a fan of ETFs for other folks (especially in their defined contribution plans) moreso than myself. About the only time I want to hold an ETF is for a short term trade. For example I use SLV and GLD to capitalize on expected short term moves in the market rather then schlepp ounces of physical into the brick and mortar store. One exception is PHO, simply because I am a little overweight (or trying to be) in the water sector and want the underlying fund in addition to cherry picking out individual companies.
The reason I prefer to buy stakes in individual companies is I believe the real value of the stock market is its inefficiency: The ability to arbitrage value by picking out stocks that are, for whatever reason, trading at a discount to their true current value. Secondarily the benefit is catching a cyclical or secular trend early. In this case, TAN meets the latter consideration, but not the first. since TAN is only in 6 countries, and especially since the market performance isn't established, I am unconvinced of the value therein. Moreover, how will you determine a buy price given the scant technical indicators. Also, no dividend? Would be remiss if I didn't state my general distrust of ETFs. We have dissected SLV/GLD to death on this board. While I am willing to take the risk of holding the ETF short term, in the final analysis I find the vehicles are just another paper scam and hope I am not on the merry-go-round when the music stops.
Regarding the fundamental: I am a big believer in passive solar thought not so impressed with where we are currently at with active solar technology and am completely underwhelmed in the advances made in the sector over the past 25 years. Although advances in the last three years, especially in the fabric, look compelling - at least on the surface.
On the plus side, I see you are diversifying out of bullion from a very overweight position to a less overweight position. I can see US equities generally out-performing bullion for the rest of the year, but at what cost? And, ICBW. Surely we would have to assign TAN a higher beta, right. In such case what can we assign the alpha? Not sure the expected return at this point is worthy of entry. However, the low daily volume, especially on the down side, looks attractive. One could argue that folks just haven't found the fund yet, but when they do...
As far as I can tell, here are my previous posts herein on sector members. Note my picks haven't been stellar, though neither buys were a long term trade.
12.13.07 ESLR - Evergreen Solar This stock has been on a huge run. Haven't held it since I bought 3.1.06 and sold about a week later for a lousy 8%. Thing is, it went up just a tad after that and has been down ever since until this last week. In the last 12 weeks it's up from $9 to over 15 today. Up 14% in after hours trading today alone to now over $17.5. Maybe let it sell off and then buy in again when the dust settles for another trade.
3.1.06 Just Trading Hope you lightened up in GPXM today around .40? Another double courtesy o' yours truly (in just 10 weeks). Sell half on the two bagger; you'll often get a chance to re-enter later. And if not, your shares are free anyway so quit yer bitchin and find another stock to buy. what, all the other eight stox in the little index are yukky? boo hoo, go find another acorn.
Potential nice entry points in LRCZ, ESLR, ENER, CSTR. All short term. Watch 'em close. This choppy volatile action in the major market may be marking a medium term top. Caught a reeel nice entry in NT lately, but didn't have time to mention here. Doesn't matter where the sources or your profit derive if they all buy the same piece of gold.
The sector has generally shown lackluster in the past 104 weeks, after a nice two year run-up. I had also held a couple stocks through the nice run-up of 04 into 05, but sold a little early (mid05) rather than waiting until the blow off top later in the year. [Can't find if/where I posted those trades]. Oh well. At that time in 04 I took a good look at renewable/alternative energy sector/projects, especially in Ca/Nv and especially vis a vis the mining sector:
9.10.04 Navy emergency oil reserves
The Navy had
another very large reserve in Hawaii. Red ( Hawk? ) Hill, I believe. Never was
on the books.
9.10.04 The majority of US Mercury pollution is via aeolian deposition from coal power plants. Could this possibly be related to pushing back the mercury air quality credit requirements until 2018?
9.10.04 Coal vs. renewable in the west US Coal vs. renewable Ca energy?
The fact is, Nevada will lead the way in determining what the energy sources
used in Ca. are. Ca. is not building many new power plants, but Nv. is. http://www.rgj.com/news/search.php?submit=day&d=2004-08-22
Then, compare growth rates of population, business, and gdp in Nv. vs. Ca. to see why the current leader in these categories, and the infrastructure components that serve as support ( water power ) , and the leading-edge discussions around these issues, are centered in the Great Basin.
9.10.04 Clean coal technology
is a misnomer.
really, it's 20% technology and 80% operation and maintenance.
9.10.04 Nv Power
Let me bottom line
it for all y'all. Saving 250 million
in power use is better than building 250 million worth of power plants.
9.10.04 Nv. Power and Miners chairman, president and CEO of Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp just recently served on the board of directors of the largest power generator in Nv.
9.10.04 Wind power isn't happening in Nv. too many false starts. calif. pulled out price supports ( major reduction ) this last ( past ) fiscal year in the form of rebates for solar purchases.
9.10.04 Is Barrick building a power plant in Nv
b.c. they think it
will lower their price/oz au production, or because they think they can build
AND supply under 9cents/kwh? Other miners have sought to build power plants adjacent to their mines and mills. Usually cheaper to build their own power plant than to build new transmission lines to import power only to lose a fair percentage of the energy from transmission. For example, GRZ operations in Nv.
My question is will
the government of Venezuela allow GRZ to retail the power?
9.10.04 Gold miners are the single largest user of power in Northern Nevada
Another fact. Where
will they get their power from?
You can see that I was at that time unconvinced save one fact: the sector has almost as many charlatans as the gold sector, but not quite as many as the financial industry. For that matter, I put more of my bets on water - especially geothermal (Ormat/USGeo; NvGEo) as described and previously written. I remain more bullish on the water/geo and nuclear plays over the biofuel/solar/wind plays; but perhaps it's time for another look. The past year Ca. and Nv. were the 1 and 2, respectively, largest developers of new solar projects.
Do believe the federal tax credits end this year...although there are congressional movements (currently three different bills) to extend the credits. Not that congressional movements are generally a good thing...
Well, there you go: one half-baked flake take on the make for your sake and fwiw...
Other folks suggested the following solar plays: CSIQ, TEL and AKNS
4.23.08 Nevada Mining Association Opposes proposed reform to 1872 Mining Act
http://www.nma.org/mining_law.asp
Doesn't matter, the politicians know best. After all, look at what a great job CONgress did by mandating the nations corn supply go toward ethanol. Now we have a food crisis brewing on top of the energy crisis. Everybody wins!
4.23.08 The Reno Gazette Journal ran this piece at the very nadir of the metal markets in 1999.
Perfect timing on the bottom. Nobody could sell their house in the small
mining towns, nobody could find a job, the mines were all shut down or
mothballed. An interesting read, now that the metals have
tripled-sextupled in 9 years and the mining firms cannot fill the jobs.
4.23.08 Just a FEW of those Devising a New and Improved Water Crisis from amongst the many:
4.23.08 US metal mine restoration projects some good stuff here:
4.23.08
Worth Its Weight In Gold
4.23.08 James C. Russo English and Russian Collection up for Auction Some nice pieces there:
http://www.news-antique.com/?id=784103
Tried to figure out if he was related to Aaron Russo, and therefore receiving some wonderful advice along the way. Was not able to make the connection. There is James C. Russo with an acting career, but not sure if its the same guy with the Princeton economic heritage. Anybody know?
4.23.08 Australian Mining Research Collaboration
The mining sector appears
grossly undercapitalized. Not sure I see a fundamental vision how
the industry will meet the energy, transportation, social and
environmental problems roiling beneath the surface. At least a few
are posing inquiries into strategies and approaches for the next few
decades: http://www.amira.com.au/?section=about&page=top
Then again, maybe we just
stop mining for 20-30 years or so, and see what happens... 4.22.08 Greywolf (GW on the Amex) May be setting up a buy. Look for support where the 100 day moving average touches the 200 day moving average (which has just begun to turn up.) Probably between 6.40 and 6.88. Anybody research fundamentals on this one? Thoughts?
4.21.08 Titanium Supplier
http://www.westerntitanium.com/about.htm
4.20.08 Which is the Role Model for the US: Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany?
I think the US equivalent
will run more along the Zimbabwe lines. Weimer was still Germany.
Zimbabwe had been Rhodesia until US state department and kin installed
Mugabe; things are unfolding as planned.
4.20.08 Circulating coinage - on the way out... Just got back from South Lake
Tahoe. Out of the five casino's there, only one has slot machines
that payout change. And there's only about 20 of those machines.
The industry is perfecting the automation of paper-accepting machines.
Technology is very close now to replicating in other sectors (vending,
etc.). 4.17.08 Another sector arbitrage pair: MRB and KGC
Caught this one real nice:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=KGC&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=mrb
MRB performed 2x as well as KGC. Wow, how similar they traded throughout most of the period and how differently they traded for a two week period to end march, which made the deal.
Look to make a decision next week...
"1.24.08 Traded out of KGC and back into MRB today."
4.17.08. The Mackay School of Mining, one of the Finest in North America Is celebrating 100 years of excellence.
http://localsearch.rgj.com/sp?aff=1135&eventId=1990042&skin=100 Note the new name change based on the
'global-warming-green-sustainability' tax breaks expected down the
road... 4.17.08 Can we trade/arbitrage the pick-a-pair strategy based on weighting in a given index? For example, XAU? The percentage that any one company comprises of the XAU changes as the price of that stock increases/decreases. So right now if GG is about 16% of the XAU and NEM is about 9%, can we make an informed bet -based upon historical weightings - that one firm has a higher probability to increase its position weighting in the XAU over the short/medium term as it reverts back towards the mean weighting? Something to look into... 4.17.08 Looking over a Five Week Trading Period Update: Time to check in on the trades posted on March 8th: "AGT. This stock should run to 0.98. You might consider this pullback here as a buy opportunity. Disclaimer, I am in at 51 and 28 cents." http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui Still looks good. b. Copper Stock. Plenty of people been calling for copper to drop in the last three years. Every one of them wrong. The fundamentals are still there and copper has just now looked bullish again technically. Loot at Qua.to and PCU. Disclaimer, I own Quat (in at 4.15), but just sold PCU. You might get it cheaper than current. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=PCU&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=QUA.to Right, this serves as example of my 'pick a pair' strategy. Choose two decent (fundamentally sound companies) in a strong industry/sector (mining/copper) and play the strength arbitrage between the two. That is, one of the pair will exhibit stronger prices action over any given period of time (I am using 5 -weeks currently). Buy the firm that indicates a higher probability to out-perform the other stock in the pair. Re-evaluate and re-position (if necessary) after five weeks. In this case, we did well with Qua.to and, indeed, PCU is much cheaper than 5 weeks ago. Even today, as of now PCU is down 2% whereas Quat.to is up. Hence, today is the time to switch out of Qua.to and go into PCU. Amazing how well copper has performed, definitely stunning the field of analysts trying to sweat the pipe the wrong way! If you can’t buy those stocks in your accounts, here’s another couple freebies: c. AT&T has posted 80% sales growth with earnings growth 12% + for the past four quarters. Paying a 4.5 dividend yield. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=t Update: Ok, up 10% in five weeks. Had been up more last week, looks iffy and uncertain here, with a bias lower. Time to sell for short term horizon, or hold for long term (and dividend). d. Pfizer. Discredited by analysts due to competition from generic drug makers. Thing is, the generics don’t have the same quality lobbyists. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=pfe Update: Ouch, bad day and bad month. Down over 6% in the period. Of course, they don't provide quite the same level of anaylsis on the generic firms. Of course, that is roughly the dividend the company still pays. Since the buy is long term horizon (based on politics), the stock is still a hold in our portfolio, though the stop loss is close. 5. Of course, the best place to put money right now is in real estate. Update: Enough said. Maybe wait and see if the next round of 'housing reform legislation' does include the 7k tax incentive for purchase of foreclosed properties. IF so, that is an additional 3-5% off the purchase price on some of the places I've been looking at recently. The next five week trading period will end just before Memorial Day. This is a common time to re-evaluate and potentially pull back/scale out on some positions. "Sell in May and go away" matches sometimes, but not always, long term seasonals. So the five week period lines up nicely on the seasonal evaluation epoch; that makes the next evaluation more heavily weighted, and likely more difficult to read as a result. 4.17.08 Right Now, a Roth IRA account (US) Cannot Have Margin Rights However, there is legislation introduced in the US which would allow the little folks a plastic card where they can make revolving withdrawals from their IRA! If that passes, there must be some tangent to allow margin (you've got to figure that some folks will find a way to get 'overdrawn). Just another ploy to prop up the markets a little bit longer...by keeping the folks in debt and buying a little bit longer. Indeed, there are numerous 'gurus' who have been making the 'investment seminar circuit' pitching how to buy real estate within your Roth IRA. Just another notch on the stick beating the little people into submission on the way to completely withdrawing/margining the last financial bastion left, their retirement funds. 4.16.08 Symbol Change: UGTH now HTM and now trades on AMEX We're in at 0.90. Long term I still like this play, US Geothermal.
4.16.08 Hecla takes 100% interest in Greens Creek Mine Rio Tinto has enough larger fry to fish.
per PR Newswire - April 16, 2008 3:41 PM ET
4.16.08 Discipline How can those who trade,
watch multiple screens on various accounts across multiple platforms,
track news and issues across the globe real-time from numerous feeds,
determine alpha beta positioning timing trending and analysis for more
than one individual, bucking the grain, providing valuable insight and
wisdom, making money where others have failed, consistently...
4.16.08 Yamana Gold (AUY) Keeping its Name in Play Announces news to announce its news
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080416/0387475.html?.pf=banking-budgeting
Seems to be working, up strongly today.
4.16.08 EBay to end 'eBay Live Auctions' The firm is quitting that portion that allows real-time auctions hosted by various auction houses after seven years.
LiveAuctioneers will now venture out as a separate concern.
Per Kovels.com
4.15.08 No Coverage No Press, No Notice The balance of power changed last week in the Mexican Parliament.
4.11.08 Been a Little Busy Birth of a Son! Both he and I have eyes wide open and mom doing well...
4.7.08 Nevada State Legislators Act to Block Senators from Locking up More Rural Land
There are certainly some beautiful areas in this area. No reason for wilderness designation though. Water will limit development; the minerals are already leased and will be grandfathered in anyway, and ranching would also be grandfathered in. Only reason for wilderness designation is to eliminate vehicle (especially motorcycle and ATV access). Same thing has happened all over the state in the last twenty years. Best to keep the little people penned up in the cities where we can keep a camera on 'em.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2008804070341
4.4.08 Pan Am Exposition Coins to be displayed at Santa Clara coin show next weekend.
Believe this was the same set
displayed two years ago. Awesome! 4.4.08 Was just looking at an Illinois Offering from about 100 years ago Real Estate Gold Bond paying
6%
4.3.08 The New Gold Rush The Sacramento Bee had a
story today which led off with this beauty: "The Sierra Nevada is littered with gold, the celebrity element that rocked financial institutions last month at a record $1,000 an ounce in futures trading. Suddenly, gold panning has become a hot recreational activity..."
Oh yeah. It was gold which caused the panic in the financial markets last week. Surely the panic had nothing to do with: - The assets of Bear Stearns forced at the point of the gun into JPMorgan by the Fed wheras the US taxpayer took on teh debts, over 30Billion worth. - The Fed trampling all over what little financial jurisdiction Congress previously wielded - A spooked press claiming 'Recession'. Mostly b.c. they're getting laid off since nobody wants to place an add in their irrelevant little rag anymore, and they have no real marketable skills in the larger job market. - Poor financials and technical pictures in most US bond markets
Yep, it was the little nuggets and pieces of rock in the ground to blame for it all. And at the same time, the only thing its good for is to waste the time of some folks with a pan down at the American River because they have no other way to met that mortgage this month.
4.1.08 Happy April Bought AUY and SLV today, nice entry points IMO (hopefully): 100-day EMA on SLV. AUY shows nice support on Fibonacci targets and declining sell volume.
3.26.08 Mining Law of 1872 - Reform Efforts
Very little discussion on this topic. When Senators Domenici and Reid leave, the bill ALREADY passed by the house will pass the senate IMO. AT that time all mining valuations in the US will change overnight. The current round of hearings in Nv. are to determine just how much reform the Nevada population with a stake in the mining community will currently accept.
3.17.08 Today the US Definitively Crosses the Threshold into Fascism Treasury Secretary, formerly the head of major Bear Stearns Competitor Goldman Sachs, and his buddies at JP Morgan signed a deal with the devil (the Federal Reserve). The Fed, in turn, forced Bear Stearns into insolvency. They took over the assets and the US taxpayer, through your wage taxes, absorbed the bad debt. A government appointed receiver, Bernanke, now handpicks which banks will receive your money, and which banks must surrender their assets to his friends.
3.16.08 Little People and their Litter: Main Street Economics, Installment Three
Picked up a bunch of deposit receipts strewn on the ground, draped across the ATM bench, and lingering around the trash receptacle outside the ATM at my nearest Bank of America Branch. (Had they any decency, they would offer the services of a shredder, or at least a recycle bin). Slips were from a Saturday morning and early afternoon.
C) 3264.38 wdl 60 S) 108.38 (inquiry only) C) 1660.20 wdl 80 C) 2454.08 wdl 60 C) 414.19 wdl 40 C) 99.13 wdl 300 C) 6210.23 wdl 200 C) 3129.67 wdl 60 C) 26,315.50 wdl 500 C) 912.75 dep 850.58 C) 3553.59 wdl 40 C) 2564.58 wdl 200 S) 15995.83 wdl 100. C) 7407.98 wdl 60 343 (credit card balance?) C) 460.00 inquiry only C) 21.37 dep 5.00 C) 1760.06 dep 573.08
Wow, that is a LOT more in the average balance from the first two times I conducted this exercise. So, I went back and looked at the types of account the slips represented, either checking (C) or savings (S), and put the types in parenthesis in front of the amount. Also, my sense is that these balances also reflect paycheck deposits from yesterday (Friday) and those checks deposited which arrive at the middle of the month. I then went to each line and described the type of activity with each account: Deposit (dep), Balance Inquiry, or Withdrawal (wdl). To further standardize this exercise, I should probably select two or three dates a month. Once on a Thursday at the end of the month (suspected balance low), then the first Thursday of the month (to capture the first of the month deposits) and the first Saturday of the month (to see what was withdrawn/spent from the fist of the month and first Friday of the month). Over time sample size and bias errors can be corrected.
Average Balance on March 15, 2008: $4,259 Average Balance from Oct 24 07 $815 Average Balance from May 07 $100.87
3.14.08 Bank Collapse Chronicles: Bear Stearns
Today Bear Stearn's competitors and the federal government prevented a complete collapse into insolvency only through emergency infusions of cash not seen since the great US depression in the 1930's. Without this action, the nations fifth-largest investment bank would have seen the bank runs of yesterday and earlier today completely freeze up any shred of liquidity left to these criminals, err bankers.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080314/NATION/389884701/1002
Only reason the commercial banks haven't had runs yet is due to the unlimited piles of fiat poured from your taxpaying pocket into their coffers in the last few weeks. Even that hasn't prevented the necessity for these top US banks to also seek bailouts from foreign countries.
What a stunning turn of events, Bernanke was wrong (or - could he/it be -lying; nah!); it wasn't the small local banks with Real Estate portfolios that would fail first. Nope, straight to the top. The bedrock of American Finance for the last 80 years is quivering/shaking like the shanties of Manhattan built on the fill, not the bedrock. Ho Hum. (hey, those that agreed with the Breakdown of BAC as I posted 2.29 have a quick 15% in a fortnight. Take it when you can, turn the paper into something worthwhile).
If you've read this thread this long, you might listen to that inner voice: Time to sell your GLD and SLV (which had been outperforming physical metal) and buy physical gold and silver.
Just don't tell anybody...
If you really would like a great study in the fall of financial empires, look at the timing of when the corporation builds a monument to themselves. Rabbi Daniel Lapin provided a great overview of this phenomena in his Tower of Babel series. Pan Am built their Manhattan Monolith at the height of their power. The firm is now erased from the business world. Sears built their tower, tallest in the world at on point. The tower opened the same year the price of Sears hit their all time high; all downhill since. Same with a number of other firms; amazing concept.
Bear Stearns built their headquarters in New York, in (do believe) 2001. Great timing. They've lost approximately 80% of their value in the last 52 weeks. Most likely will be around in name only (taken over by another entity) another 52 weeks from now.
3.13.08 Hey Look, the new Enemy of the State Defenseless mothers with small children and puppies.
3.8.08 Market Thoughts 1. Time to dump Mutual Fund Equivalents in favor of T-bills. Just in the last couple days the equivalents have run into liquidity troubles. 2. Dump non-traded REITS. The commercial construction numbers have definitely topped out. 3. Sell GLD before April 10th 4. Stocks on Buy Signals a. AGT Announced really good resource results for the Timmins Black Fox property. The news was leaked, of course, as the stock broke out of a one year basing pattern through trendline resistance. This came right after the stock was taken off the Reg-Sho list, after being on the list for the maximum 13 day period. This stock should run to 0.98. You might consider this pullback here as a buy opportunity. Disclaimer, I am in at 51 and 28 cents. b. Copper Stock. Plenty of people been calling for copper to drop in the last three years. Every one of them wrong. The fundamentals are still there and copper has just now looked bullish again technically. Loot at Qua.to and PCU. Disclaimer, I own Quat (in at 4.15), but just sold PCU. You might get it cheaper than current. If you can’t buy those stocks in your accounts, here’s another couple freebies: c. AT&T has posted 80% sales growth with earnings growth 12% + for the past four quarters. Paying a 4.5 dividend yield. d. Pfizer. Discredited by analysts due to competition from generic drug makers. Thing is, the generics don’t have the same quality lobbyists. 5. Of course, the best place to put money right now is in real estate. Still some more downside to go, but the house I bought was at a foreclosure auction for 60% less than it was originally listed at in October 2005. This place will cashflow right now, barely. As I said, I plan to buy another rental within three years, maybe sooner. SFH rent should triple net 12% in this city by then. Even though the long bond has just begun to move up, the short term yields won’t be anywhere near that in three years. The US fed is falling into exactly the same trap that vexed Japan for 20 years. How many times have you herd folks on the radio over the past3-4 years say the interest rates were at a low and could only go up. Wrong, Japan lowered all the down to 01% and aren’t much higher than that right now. Some try to rationalize and make statements to the effect; "But the demographics in Japan were different" or "We have more transparency in the banking system which will help prevent the financial industry from dragging down the country for years" or other half-baked cakes. Nope. Fact is the BOJ reached the incompetence level just before becoming irrelevant, much like our Federal Reserve bank is doing right now. Exactly nobody is recommending buying SFH right now. There are even some better real estate plays right now, but I won’t go into those just yet. 3.7.08 What a Quandary. should we sell physical metals that have increased 400-900%? We could: - buy an asset declining in price - buy an asset we hope has stopped declining, and will rise - purchase a toy or liability just for giggles,
and the crux of the matter: buy or sell debt?
In some cases I can see that the decision to pay off our own (or family's) debt might be a forced decision. Telling a loved one to just sell the house because this will be the third month the can't meet mortgage isn't all that easy to say, nor that easy to make happen.
Buffet characterized it well last week, the financial markets are currently "de-leveraging".
Now, if everybody ELSE is deleveraging, why would WE want to do the same? When everybody was throwing fiat and margin at NasDuffy/QQQ in 2000, WE we accumulating physical. Now that the slag has a quadruple, the same everybody (or a small percentage therein, actually) wants to buy the slag FROM us. I can appreciate the sensibility in taking profit of the table (certainly those buys in GLD/SLV made last year), but why deleverage? Especially now that everyone else is deleveraging. Isn't that the exact time to start to build your own personal leverage, both in capacity and fact?
3.7.08 Washington Mutual on the Ropes largest U.S. savings-and-loan
institution stakes out a street corner to wave the tin cup, hailing for
alms and charity:
3.6.08 Buying a House with a Bag of Silver or a Few Coins in Precious Metal There are numerous houses in Detroit where you can purchase a house for less than a bag of silver, way less in many cases.
In fact, Detroit has a
program where they will give you a house if you can show enough
income/moxie to keep the house up, pay taxes, and beat back the looters.
makes sense to give 'em away, keep the tax base up. otherwise the houses
end up crack dens>eyesores>shells>arson practice ranges. arson HAS to be
an up-n-coming crime. all the businesses that need to be torched to hide
massive losses need to be lit BEFORE the insurance companies go broke
(and that might be next week). The city program where they
offer up free houses got me to thinking, that's another reason to begin
dipping ones toes into real estate right now - SFH and small apartment
units. |
