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2006 BLOG ARCHIVE
12.28.06 Trucking freight down 9% month over month ouch, that's gotta smart.
and then there's AGT,
down 10% just today. 12.28.06 Chile/Bolivia, Copper, and Water Trouble brewing. And six US Senators led by the Senate Majority Leader H. Reid (D-NV) arrived in Bolivia this morning for economic talks. Lucky coincidence, no? And some fools continue to fade Dr. Copper...
12.28.06 spent a few minutes on a website that detailed what people who sold their soul to satan asked for in exchange. some of them wanted dollar amounts less than what I make or lose in a couple swing trades and an ebay auction.
Now, you've got to figure that those losers are the same folks serving your food, serving on the school board, driving public transportation vehicles and otherwise conducting such activities (no intended slight to professionals in those devotions) that could have a direct impact on your life. Never met a larger batch of dopamine-derived folks in one location before.
Wish I could have those few minutes back...
12.28.06 PalladiumQuest I finally found a
palladium men's .900 ring
12.28.06 The problem with holding AEM is that I just found out gary kaltbaum is sweet on AEM. And that guy is wrong a lot (and has some nasty politics to boot).
12.26.06 Bought KGC @ 11.37 Bought MDG @ 27.10 Bought AEM @ 30.50 Bought back GG @27.5 (had sold on the 7th @ 29.5)
12.26.06 Probably shouldn't kill Saddam just yet, Maybe offer him a job would be a better bet. He was the only bloke in the last 50+ years that could run the country.
12.17.06 Nevada Copper. The concept, the realities, the companies... Just the concept is hot: finding millions of ounces of Cu-bearing ore in the ground, find qualified geologists to interpret the feasibility, find qualified engineers to develop the mine plan, find qualified salespeople to sheppard the marketing package through the social, environmental and political hoops, pay the right people, figure out how to tap Nevada's already strained and limited and increasingly desired power and water development and transmission infrastructure, find qualified engineers and construction teams and miners and plumbers and electricians and foreman and project managers and mechanics to build the roads, utilities, mine and mill, find qualified and legal operators, and convert the ore to metal product, bring the product to an increasingly erratic and uncertain market, and - not for the faint of heart - try to appease/please the regulators, community, investors, market, stockholder and your own increasingly scattered psyche.
Sure, sounds simple enough...
The reality is one medium producer has pulled it off, and done very well doing so, in the last few years: Quadra mining at the Robinson Mine. Robinson Mine is an old resource, mine and story. Quadra, much less so. Qua.to came to your attention via yours truly on or about 10.27.05 at about $4.50 or so. At that time we advised the Chinese were sniffing at the property. As a point in fact, they ChiComs did gain at least one of the three major delivery contracts available, per our sources. However, and this is quite fascinating, this year the ChiComs lost one of the three major delivery contracts available, and Qua.to instead now works with India to deliver her copper. Regarding short term price, looks like the selling is drying up and the neckline of the head and shoulders top had been pierced with some authority; I'd look for support around the 50dma once again Whole lot of people been calling for yet another cap and top in doctor copper over the last year and a half, and there is little stock on this end for the accuracy of a whole lot of people Thing is, the markets are so sketchy right now, anything could go on around the campfire.
Naturally, others both strongly want and need to get in this game. The latest to throw their hat into the bonfire is Astron Resources, who changed their name and MO and is now calling themselves (what else): Nevada Copper.
Plenty of folks been through these parts. Not so far away is the Anaconda mine superfund cleanup we've been following herein since the site once again rose into the Nevada State super conscious. Guess its just time for another to add another log, and a few more come in from the cold seeing heat ('cuz there sure ain't enough light being sought these daze).
12.17.06 The cost of living in 2006: The 22-year 12 Day's of Christmas Index hits an all time high.
You've heard of the big mac index, how much it costs to buy a meal at any mcdonalds in the world serves as an indicator of the value (purchasing power) of both the host country currency and the value of the currency used to purchase the meal. The 12 days of Christmas index is an inflation gauge that measures labor and goods necessary to purchase the 12 categories compared to the year previous. Let's examine:
http://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/ and http://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/educators.htm
Of course, PNC bank - as party-line establishment as they come toes the federal line and determines that the 12-day index is only up year-over-year of 3.1 percent, almost exactly the published fairy-tale number (fittingly) promulgated by feds as the CPI.
Lets really work the numbers:
A partridge in a pear tree. Making a double top high this year? Perhaps the h5N1 virus has spooked players in the partridge future markets?
Two Turtle Doves Still at a twenty-two year low and flat-lined? Why hasn't the cost of doves caught up with partridges? Perhaps the whole dove industry is selling soft this year because peace doves are certainly not evidently in demand anywhere on this planet given the looming and active civil wars afflicting a moderate percentage of the world's recognized political countries. At any rate, soiled doves seem to be multiplying around my neighborhood now that wal-mart ain't hiring like they once did.
Three French Hens Given the inelasticity of the market, obviously a product of France's rigged market system.
Four Calling Birds Since these birds actually talk, and give some indication of their state of mind and general maintenance costs required to maintain, they have proven a real market - albeit one increasingly expensive and at 22-year highs.
Five Gold Rings Yeah right, those haven't appreciated any in value over the last year either (snicker). Gold is only near multi-year highs and the supposed cost of a ring is near the five year low. Guess they keep factoring in more chinese slave labor into the equation. Given the shape of things on this side of the globe they could add in the wages of US workers next year for a further decrease...
Six Geese a Laying. Well, if their product - the golden egg isn't widely sought - then the bird flu might keep the ganders' kin near all time highs.
Seven Swans a Swimming. Not much movement in this market. Maybe the closing of the last US Pink Flamingo producing company in Florida this year has something to do with it...
8 Maids a Milking. Man o' Man, I see those Merry Maid cars everywhere, so I don't get why this input has remained so hard over the last few years!?!?! And given the imputed labor rate of $41.21 hr. to 'milk' I'm not sure what union the Milking Maids have, but they're doing a fair pinch better than the merry maids I've seen.!
9 Ladies Dancing I suppose, naturally, that all depends on weather you go the lap-dance route where you think you are getting off on the cheap by using all those one-dollar bills but it all adds up on an hourly basis or wether you go the outcall-route using Cragslist and hire the 'ladies' on a contract basis.
10 Lords a Leaping Not sure who's looking for that type of action, but they keep paying more every year!
11 Pipers Piping More expensive every year, guess nobody plays the flute anymore. And the casinos sure don't hire much live music anymore, not that the Blue Men Group is really into flutes or anything.
12 Drummers drumming Hey, Little Drummer Boy is one of my favorite Christmas tunes for sure! Pah Rum pah rum pum in another bottle of rum, everybody's invited!!!
So much for the twelve daze of merry haze, now, lets take a look at what it costs to just light the Christmas tree:
Cost of power generally up 10% year over year (this on top of a very large increase in 2005). Cost of copper near all time highs (needed to distribute power from production plant to your home). Cost of tree: flat Cost of permit to chop tree: Up again/still. Cost of presents under the tree. Up; see above.
Sure, if you don't plan on celebrating you could save a few quid. Pass the rum...
12.14.06 The Mint passes new regulations against melting coins for their bullion content. The country slips even farther; value is now completely illegal.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/2006-12-14-melting-ban-usat_x.htm
12.10.06 The USA has the highest rate of incarceration, and the most numbers of people in prison, than any other nation on earth. (At least according to the U.S. Justice Department).
Land of the Free!
And little justice to be seen...
12.8.06 On Nevada Mercury The Idaho Report gives major Northern Nevada mining companies room to breathe.
http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2006/12/07/features/mining_news/mining1.txt
Of note, one of the three companies mentioned in this report - Queenstake - also just released an announcement for a needed heavy equipment mechanic at the Jerritt Canyon Mine. This company could have spent money on hiring production staff (equipment operators and mechanics) or dumped more money into environmental mitigation/loss control/social responsibility marketing efforts. Today they get to hire a producer. Tomorrow, who knows. Remember, the Hg leads all other environmental loads under study, in advance of the Hg pollution credit trade currently under development. Establishing current sources and sinks nears equivalence to determining baseline supply and demand.
Though, how often will the national press present any of this for your consideration. Rather, the anti-resource extraction industry kicks it up again this weekend with the release of another chapter of the 'blood-diamond' saga...
First they need to straighten out the carbon tax/credit issue. Yes, every human will have a certain amount of carbon they can consume/emit - as benefits their standing/caste/general importance on the karmic wheel of life, call it the bio-unit or the carbon consumption unit. Any variance will require, naturally, approval of the governing world authority and a newly/additional levied tax. This system will eventually spread - like the cancer she breeds - to all other metals (mercury is in the early fringe front) and will naturally become to encumber all use of resources: air, water, food, light and heat...
Plan on being planned...
12.8.06 On California and Nevada Water and Power
Precipitation Forecast The first major winter storm moving into central California. Large storm swells are predicted, though the tides in San Francisco bay at 17:00 last night were calmer than expected. The state is currently only at 35% of normal for the water year. We need the precipitation and the snow base both. But, the wind not need apply. The wind storm in Northern Nevada two weeks ago put large strain on distribution equipment throughout the state. Distribution repair crews were working double shifts, in some cases, the few days before Thanksgiving.
Geothermal Nevada Geothermal. Nice findings on the Blue Mountain property. Established geothermal property with new temperature hits at 361 degrees. (Nice!). They added 9.6 megawatts to the Nv. grid. in 06 and, are in the bankable feasibility study phase - scheduled for completion first quarter 07 (along with attendant 100million financing in second or third quarter) for a new 35 megawatt plant in fall 2007. Major contract with the Sierra Pacific Resources last year and deals with Ormat in the works and underway also...
Owens Valley Water Yesterday, for the first time in generations, Los Angeles Water and Power released water into the normal Owns Valley watercourse. Truly a watershed moment. Things are getting interesting. The new head of Los Angeles Municipal Water District comes off a fresh stint as a Watershed Coordinator (Prop 50 Bond monies). The very newly passed Prop. 84 monies will extend this program across the states. The Southern Nevada and California Water Players are currently rolling out massive marketing and spin campaigns. Partially as a result of the last election, mostly in anticipation of even bigger battles looming...
12.8.06 American Panic Psyche in December 2007
Google Amero...and see what you get... I received 580,000 hits on 11.28.06 and 856,000 hits on 12.8.06 . Triple what it was just few months ago. Also seeing a big increase: ‘shortage’, ‘civil war’, ‘illegal” and 'carbon credits'.
So, what shall the newby-boss-same-as-the-old-boss Democrats' first-introduced proposed legislation be?
How about: ‘Reinstate the draft’ though actually called “The Public Service and Happy Puppies for Everybody Act of 2007”.
Next up: Further destroy our economy, actually called “The Equitable and Fair Carbon Credit Act upon everybody who produced (and their children) but NOT because Arnold thought of it first in California and the supposedly worst hurricane season in 2007 absolutely failed to materialize as sensationalized by the press we own but because Saving the Planet from Global Shamanistic Science is good for our control over you Senate Bill"!
Then, right upon the heels of those amazing successes the: “Now that the Federal Reserve has finally succeeded in debasing and inflating the dollar out of any relevance whatsoever since their inceptions, the ‘Let’s go Amero’ Act of Patriot Day 2007”.
Topping off the banner year: “It’s only a Civil War if we Authorize It/Acting Badly Performance Act of November 4//11, 2007”.
Or, maybe they’ll give amnesty to the fastest growing segment of US Prison: illegal aliens with the “Amnesty for drug dealers, rapists, pimps, tomato pickers, those found with any measurable amount of a weed that grows feral in 49 states and nannies-outside-but-near-the-beltway Act of Cesar Chavez Day 2007”. (Hint: the wall isn’t to keep people out. See the Public Service and Amero Acts”).
Regarding the currently-being-formulated "The Equitable and Fair Carbon Credit ....".
Certainly, the formulations are already in place. Perhaps the draft bills are done and the inner-sales preview for those 'selected sales force' has already begun. Remember all the press presented when the badly acting George Shrubco, Inc. visited the republic of Georgia last May, 2005? Sure you do (if you thin long and hard on it).
Yesterday, the President of the Republic of Georgia began a visit to San Francisco, California. Did you hear of it? No way, because it wasn't reported in any of the print or internet outlets (as of this blog entry). In fact, the only way the mercury retort can report is b.c. we first hand witnessed the motorcade going through the city (Marina District) and interestingly enough, KGO let it slip on air (just once, a two second blurb buried in one of the 1000 per week traffic reports) who was in the motorcade.
Why is the president of the Republic of Georgia in San Francisco this week?
Well..... ever hear of the America Geophysical Union?
Their next annual conference begins Monday, in San Francisco. What do you think they'll be talking about?
Guess?
'Global Warming'.
Note their keynote topics and keynote speaker: "The honorable (snicker) Ally Gore".
http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm06/
What evolution has Ally Ghore been phishing/pouting/punching/pushing from his 12 car motorcade the last 18 months: 'Why global warming means you amerkins will have to get used to not having gas for your car and heat for you home during the next major election cycle'.
Yeah, and the unannounced appearance of heads of state from major foreign powers in San Francisco next week is just a major coincidence.
Wonder who else will appear around the table. No doubt Gorbachev has already hosted a teaparty on the Presidio.
Not that the topic and game plan for discussion is of any doubt...
Next!.
12.7.06 The cost of remembering gets higher every year and the apparent return on investment continues to diminish.
RIP all Brothers on the USS Arizona.
12.7.06 Eleven killed in Iraq We get used to hearing that, or similar, headlines every day. Always we hope those numbers and faces remain nameless and shapeless to us. Unfortunately the buzzards came home to roost this week. My wife lost a childhood friend to an ambush in Anwar district.
12.7.06 Sold half my GG Today (@ 29.5) Has become overweighed in my portfolio (I held Wheaton River Mines [WHT] previously which was bought out by GG). Also a little trepidation on my part re: the very near short term price action; the volatility makes it look like GG wants to break lower. Should be able to get it cheaper, soon.
12.7.06 Sold ERF @ 45.84 Bought a month ago at 40. That's the way, so they say...
11.28.07 bernanke and greenspan both speaking publican today One to the National Italian American Foundation, and the other to a group with even less reason for existence.
11.28.07 The US housing market experiences the largest decline on record. Year over Year of 3.5 percent decline. Per the AP.
11.27.06 Nevada democrats blame the loss of their Gubernatorial candidate on the Southern Nevada Water Authority.
Reason being? The republican operatives played the carpetbagger card quite well. Their opponent, Dina Titus, still has not lost her Georgia drawl and the theme that she was a big city slicker trying to steal the state’s water from rural denizens played well. The Southern Nevada Water Authority has denied, for years, attempts to steal rural water, instead focusing on their efforts to ‘partner’ with the dumb country bumpkins for their Nevada lifeblood – water. Problem is, the Authority did make their intentions well known through outlets both official and otherwise. This considerably drove down the price of ranches, and their underlying and consumptive water rights, in Lincoln and White Pine counties. Once the ranchland prices looked like they hit their nadir, the authority and their proxies waltzed in and bought the ranches (for their water rights) on the cheap. The rural citizens awarded one of the authority chief poobah, Titus, with the defeat she deserved. Too bad the winner is even a bigger putz, as has been fully documented herein.
11.26.04 Had a great Thanksgiving. Definitely at too much, hate the gluttonous feeling since it rather defeats the purpose: giving thanks for staving off starving. The next day I cooked an elk roast, about 8 ounces worth. One of my dad’s friends gave him the roast and I put it too good use. The main decision was how I was going to cook it: bake, broil or simmer. I chose the slow cook method. Marinated overnight and simmered in the crock-pot on low for eight hours. The meal turned out wonderful. Maybe I'll post the recipe later (for subscribers). On Black Friday, went out at four in the morning to the new Best Buy store in Sparks. First time I ever went out early on Black Friday and thought it time to see if the strategy had any merit. After waiting in line for 50 minutes, in the dark 24 degree weather, I decided the strategy, in fact, had no merit. What happened is I was in line for the computer deals. Even though they were perhaps a couple hundred folks ahead of me in the line, I still thought I had a chance. After waiting a while the coffee van pulled into the lot and made a ripe killing. The store credit card hawkers moved down the line. Then individuals representing particular items that had been advertised in the newspaper moved down the line. It was at this time I asked one of the employees if they had any of the computers still available. They replied no, so I left. The next strategy is to pay off a homeless person in booze and dollars or my nephew in video games to stand in line next year at 11pm Thanksgiving Eve...
11.24.06 I am a Thankful Blogger
11.23.06 Decline in the USD begins new impulsive leg down The factor that determines gains in all other US markets is the value of the US Dollar. Today the USD broke long time technical support levels. Those less educated than you don't realize that the carnies and barkers spouting on about the new highs in the DOW refuse to note that in dollar terms, the Dow has actually returned less than 5% this year to date when valued in Euro, and is actually still down over 25% from the 2000 peak, again when valued in Euro. The Dow has performed similarly poor when priced in Swiss franc or Japanese Yen. Of course, the dramatic fall in 10-year TBill notes over the last several weeks (commensurate with the inverted yield curve) preceded and predicted this dollar weakness.
When valued in gold and/or silver (actual money), the Dow is down over 6% this year. Why is this? Interest rates, economic production, politics, and all the other canards are cover for the real story: 'Tis all a confidence game. Interest rates had plateaud in the US, and may need to come down to stifle a nasty correction in the real estate market in many US locales. On the other hand, other countries (Australia, Britain) are able to raise their rates. An environment of rising interest rates generally strengthen the underlying currency. However, the full basket of Bank of International Settlement Standard Drawing Rates is going down against both monetary metals, suggesting systemic risk has not abated; yet actually increasing.
11.22.06 Rest in Peace seven polish coal miners. Not an easy way to make a living...
11.21.06 The Marshall Mint and Museum in Virginia City is worth a visit This museum holds private collections featuring mineral collections, gold and ore specimens form the Comstock, Gold Hill and other northern Nevada and California mining districts.
The Marshall Mint also mints private issues of gold and silver coins and other exonumia and jewelry. Open by appointment between 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. 96 C St (the main strip)., Virginia City. 775.847-0777 or 800-321-6374
Admission is by donation. Please support the remaining private gem and mining museums and curatorial exhibits of Nevada history. The Liberty Belle on highway 395 in s. Reno had a great collection that was auctioned off and broken up just last year. The Tonopah Station Casino collection of historic vintage and antique slot machines has been mostly broken up and no longer on display. There are fewer and fewer examples of examining our western heritage collections as costs go up, space and time become more dear, and the younger folks are not educated on the importance of their cultural heritage.
As far as gaming slots: We knew the payoffs on the slot machines we built. The ones sent to Atlantic City had the worst payout ratios of them all. Of course, this was before the ‘Indian Casinos” (really bankrolled by the same old new/old money). Bottom line: Craps is the best odds in the house. Bar none.
11.20.06 Rest in Peace Milton Friedman. Another one of the few who understood. The litany of the confused grows louder and younger...
11.20.06 So far... good timing on the Canadian Oil Trusts. The 'threat' to further tax at a later date is always a latent threat. Demonstrations of impinging doom provide buying opportunities. (I got mine 5% under my limit bid!)
11.11.06 Armistice Day Went to an estate sale and picked up a copy of General Pershing's summary of the plan that won World War I. A fascinating juxtaposition amidst the nightmare series of fubarious error that has to date defined the latest forays into Iraq and Afghanistan. Amazing how simple yet sound a plan we effected in Europe during the nineteen-teens for a decisive victory compared to the incredibly complicated failure menu we have served up over in the middle east.
11.9.06 Divorce, Republican Style The 'Compassionate Conservatives', the Conservatives, and the regular ol' folks that thought they had a chance at a better life see the Neo-Cons throw a monkey wrench into the works. The loss of confidence in the Neo-cons over the war crimes and other treasonous acts has resulted in their response: throwing the election. The administration could have easily saved the senate and a few seats in the house if they fired Rumsfield a couple weeks ago. The fact that they waited until the election results were in showed their true colors - complete destruction of our country is their only goal, and they're doing a fine job of it. Some hope for gridlock. Unfortunately, both sides will continue to work together to bring the destruction of our once fine Republic into a more rapid decent into a certain demise. The investigations of the war crimes will be a sham - though the crimes are certainly real enough. After significant bread and circus the teams will continue to ramrod shoddy legislation through the gullet. First on is the immigration 'reform', which shall certainly provide amnesty for all the illegals currently over on this side of the fence.
Then the social promises will follow, enticing those folks who have not had yet enough incentive to cross the border yet. Bringing millions of more folks currently living south of the border onto our tax rolls is the only way to 'grow' our way out of the crippling foreign debt we have accrued to finance the folly war and all the other social programs that the 'compassionatistas' have promised as far as the eye can see. Of course, there is another way...
The Chinese and Japanese will soon begin to take over private control of our best native publicly-traded companies, especially commodity producing firms. Given the amount of our fiat in their treasury, they can re-patriate debt into what's left of our production capacity, buying up the remaining producer firms on the cheap - as it was designed all along...
11.8.06 Mercury in Transit In front of the sun. Won’t happen again until 2016. More interesting is the timing of the next Venus transit in 2012.
11.8.06 US Elections I’d write ‘same old, same sold’ but in reality – it gets worse every election…
11.7.06 Voting is Easy Living with the results is not.
11.6.06 Nice time to buy an artificially de-valued Canadian Royalty Trust. I got mine (ERF at $40.0)
11.2.06 Gold had a nice breakout this week, technically. The fundamentals look neutral to me. Both of these are improved since my bearishness on gold on 8.12.06. In that analysis I was right on regarding oil and metals but completely underestimated the ability to move the Dow index at will, prior to an election. Also, the real estate bubble is deflating little faster than I had expected (hoped?) and therefore some of that money is rolling into presumably safe, secure, stodgy, dividend-paying stocks. Certainly not a ringing endorsement of the capital markets.
Looking as GS as proxy right now for the financial sector. Right on support and could go either way...
10.28.06 The Ballad of Casey Serin Another Chapter of Chasing the Dragon. A 24 year old man from Sacramento with bigger dreams. Went bankrupt trying the Carleton Sheets (and others) style by buying and flipping houses.
Too much, too fast, too greedy.
Microcosm, USA.
http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/
10.28.06 David M. Walker Finally an honest man emerges from the federal government cesspool. Walker, chief of the Government Accounting Office, is currently on a country-wide tour exploring the full depths of our financial quagmire. Iraq and Afghanistan provide soothing comic relief compared to the financial disaster lapping at our doorstep.
10.22.06 My Credit Card Lowered the minimum payment due by 50%! Now I can go tens of thousands in debt and not pay it back for the next 6,567 years! Time to leverage into the Dow 24,000! What a plan...
(When the credit firms have been reduced to the point they attempt extracting a profit from those folks who can actually pay off their card in full every month, you know the systemic risk asteroid has just entered their radar screen. 50,000 feet and closing in fast...)
10.18.06 The Smell of Fear ...in the housing market, is the only smell that masks the ubiquitous scent of greed.
10.13.06 Nevada Mining Month? Did a web search and couldn't find out anything about Nevada Mining Week this year. It typically is the last week of October, ending with Nevada Day. However, this year I could find NO information on Nevada Mining Week 2006. So, I called the Nv. Division of Minerals. Debby was very helpful. She covered her sources and called around and got back to me. Apparently the Governor is to busy to sign the proclamation this year, so no 'official' week. Therefore, Mercury deems October - Nevada Mining Month. Next year will begin Nevada Partial Mining Millennium. Better start working on the promo...
10.12.06 Gotta admit, They can keep the Dow high as long as they want to. Until they can't. Gotta love election hanky panky. Cheap gas too!
10.6.06 Very high level of puts on the general US equities (SPY etc.) today Some big money making big bets that the markets are headed much lower, soon.
9.29.06 Real Estate Market Sure has been an interesting two years in the RE market. In just the past three years I have watched home prices in our neighborhood rise by 150k, and now decline 75k.
Will be some nice deals out there in another 18 months or so…
I like how last months new home sales were reported as up 4.1%. That follows July’s new home sales reported as down 4.3% (which was further revised to down 7.5%). Amazing really, inventories are highest they have been since 1983 – all major homebuilders are suffering from excess inventory, and the new home sale figure is up 11.6% in one month!
I guess they need to make up something to report on MSNBC between the commercials…
9.28.06 Detainee House and Senate Vote Actual supporters of liberty and freedom lost another major fight yesterday. The house and senate agreed to let the POTUS lock up anyone they like, without proper trial by jury or any other requirement held in the Bill of Rights, define torture, use torture to the best of the administrations' judgment (and that judgment, or lack thereof, has been exceedingly an excruciatingly well established) .
I expect the populace will resoundingly approve of this new low in the American experiment - devolving quickly into an authoritarian nightmare, by once again voting for the same representatives of satan in the next general election come November.
9.25.06 Nice to see my Alma Mater, UC Davis Receive a grant from Barrick Gold Corp, in the tune of a cool 1MillionUSD, to establish the Barrick McLaughlin Natural Reserve. Of course, the old anti-BarickLAC contingent will provide the hypothesis that this is a cheap way to remove the Homestake name off the reserve. I say good one on ABX, let's see how the preserve can support and advance produce restoration and reclamation studies for the next 100 years. As UCD gains an even larger foothold and name recognition in the international economics arena. The US reclamation science will eventually become one of our proudest exports to the current large gold producing areas of today.
9.24.06 War On The Citizens Read the passage about the National Intelligence Assessment speaking to Iraq as a training ground for the next generation of Islamic radical terrorists, as if that wasn’t the plan all along…
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. authorities have arrested a New York man for broadcasting Hizbollah television station al-Manar, which has been designated a terrorist entity by the U.S. Treasury Department, prosecutors said on Thursday. Javed Iqbal, 42, was arrested on Wednesday because his Brooklyn-based company HDTV Ltd. was providing New York-area customers with the Hizbollah-operated channel, federal prosecutors said in a statement.
It did not say how long Iqbal's company had been providing satellite broadcasts of al-Manar, which the U.S. Treasury Department in March had designated as Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity, making it a crime to conduct business with al-Manar. Iqbal has been charged with conspiring to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act
9.17.06 Status The war of northern aggression, the war on honest money, the war on drugs, the war on poverty, the war on terrorism are all chapters of the same book of The War on he American Model of the Democratic Republic.
Only fairly recently has the battle had to spill upon foreign shores. This current phase is not so much about supporting the hegemony of the us dollar as it is support of the war model.
The concurrent subjugation of the bill of rights is a highly advantageous bonus, in that the assault was victorious through the flanks and not through a messy frontal assault.
9.13.06 Air America went bankrupt. No big surprise there. Too bad NPS doesn't have to compete in the market place. Klose, the NPR CEO cut his teeth pushing the party line and propaganda with Voice of America, Radio Free EuropeTV Marti, etc.) Guess he hasn't really changed his stripes too much. Some member stations receive up to 20% funding through the government corporation, Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Moreover, NPR and the NPR Foundation are under common control - namely, the control of Herman who just also happens to manage JP Morgan.
Big Money. Big Government. Big Programs. Big Brother.
9.11.06 Believe it if you need to...
9.7.06 Operator of US Polling Firm Convicted on Conspiracy Charge The majority of those semi-useful idiots who claim conspiracy is impossible, because nobody can keep a secret, forget three things: 1. Many indictments and convictions are for Conspiracy, not actions. 2. For every one indicted, numerous evade inept law enforcement, successfully bribe such, or simply evade detection. 3. The masses simply don't have the time, ability or inclination to keep tabs on what is really going on around them. Nobody needs to keep a secret when the common Jane and Joe ignore the bloated elephant carcass rotting in the middle of their living room.
From Connecticut Post: 9.7.06
"Tracy Costin, 46, of Madison, admitted to U.S. District Judge Janet C. Hall that she participated in a conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Costin, who owned and operated DataUSA, a survey and polling firm with offices in West Haven and Guilford, faces up to five years in prison when she is sentenced Nov. 30."
Note, I conducted door-to-door surveys and data collection for six different outfits, including the US Census, between 1985 and 2000. This conspiracy charge is hardly a pimple on the dead elephant's ass. The Commerce department essentially lies to the field staff, regularly, and makes up demographic data to suit the current political winds. Just one man's experience. But experience it is, not conspiracy...
9.2.06 Went long a smidgen of Du Jour Enterprises Gas and Uranium properties. As in the gold sector, producing mining companies have been buying up junior explorers with potential productive properties since the major producers have spent very little money on exploration during the energy and commodity bear that lasted 20 years and just ended a couple short years ago.
Hard to tell how good an entry point this is based on price and volume, but I'm hoping the fundamentals and seasonals help the potential swing trade term into a nice hold.
8.31.06 Let myself wander into this analogy – life as a journey. Some might feel that life is a journey up the mountain and back down the mountain, over and over again, or up other hills, through the valley, and then again up other mountains.. Going up the peak is difficult and presents challenges and growth. At the top of the hill, the Arete, things look magnificent – the view and our position within the landscape command respect, and we master over our own domain. The path down the hillside also presents challenges and the decline from strength. The path again grades rocky and steep – the knees ache and the load becomes heavier with every switchback.
Some folks might speculate that life much more resembles a path along the road. One route is more enjoyable, slow, easy, and represents the good, the satisfying the quality experience we all seek to have and then grasp to remember as “The Good Old Days” from fuzzier vantage points in the future when reality darkens a bit. The road along the path represents the more difficult, hectic, fast paced lifestyle we must struggle on to get ahead, stay even, or just-not-fall-too-behind- on. Work, struggle, false starts and stop and go, and inevitably – an accident. That sound of destruction amid one dark and dire moment. The accidents crush steel against fragile skin and bone, wreaking grief, suffering and death.
The two tracks continue indefinitely into the horizon. There is always some aspect of our life that is going well; where we are sated, happy and respected. So too, another challenge along the road always jumps in front of us, unexpected, perplexing, vexing and causes twists and turns we wish never appeared. Always we struggle with some part of our life that needs improvement at best, or careens out of control, in the wrong gear, going the wrong way. The good and the bad happen simultaneously on different stretches of the road and the path next to each other.
Then, allow me to present a third analogy and the one that rings true this last day of August 2006. Life is the journey along a:
Ppath/River/ROAD/Lane.Highway.ScenicByWay.Narrowpass/Trail/raiL/sidewalk/two-track. The path’s surface, makeup and constitution constantly changes and undulates, as does the scenery and the weather and our company and our pace and our direction and our goal and our weariness and our enjoyment of such.
Yet one thing remains constant – the mechanics. One foot moves in front of the other, even when you are walking backwards. Even when you are going up-hill or down-hill. Even when you are gaining speed, or losing speed. Even when you laugh at the scenery or cry with the rain. Still, one foot is on the ground and one foot is not – moving ahead- searching- leading –seeking – hesitant - sure- looking for the next piece of path to claim, as ones own position in the universe (if even for a partial second) - that place between where we were and where we are going known as the present: here and now. One foot knows, one foot doubts. One foot feels, one foot flails. One foot stays, one foot searches, One foot rises, one foot falls. One foot leads, one foot follows. One foot enjoys the here and now, one foot breaches tomorrow.
Yet, every once in a while, something entirely different intrudes our mechanical and steady gait.
And we jump…
8.12.06 Market Sell Signals!
Things don't look so hot for equity market, so I am immediately going 20% cash (10% money market and 10% 6 month and 1-year CDs) and will be prepared to increase the cash position. I am willing to take a sure 3-4% vs the risk I see staying in the equities for the next 12-18 months.
1. Fundamentals
The widening yield curve (3 month T-bill vs 10 year Note) shows that liquidity has been drying up since the beginning of July. This may revert for the next few months, but there certainly doesn't appear to be any large source of money entering the equity markets. Some had postulated that a softening housing market would allow more funds to enter the equities, but they forgot to figure that the folks must get their money out first. The real estate days on market has increased incredibly in the last 10 months, so folks don't have the cash they hoped to cash out with. For that matter, the money on margin from low fed funds rates and the home-equity-line of credit acting as automatic teller machine has effectively taken out that supply of margin money. At best, the money supply treads water for the next quarter.
Interest Rate Pause Ben Benanke. Let's face it, he had no chance whatsoever correcting Greenspan's Nero-esque behavior. Bernanke is a likely candidate to get heart-attacked before his natural demise.
In mid-July, when 'Helicopter Benny' Bernanke was trying out his vocal cords on the new fed bully pulpit in front of actual people, the paper markets panicked and folks fled to the existing exits, some flying straight into the bond market. The yield on the 10year TIPS results had a tradable drop. Results: bid coverage down the porcelain throne and a drop in almost 30 basis points. Nobody wanted the gruel served that day. Bid coverage firmed up much more last week, following the pause in rate increases.
So, where exactly are those dealers afraid of the 'wage inflation' the Fed keeps rambling on (dramatizing) about?
Short term (since May), bonds and dollar rose off a double bottom, and have jut recently filled the upside gap. What portends for the short term future? Does the TIPS action today provide any indication of tomorrow, or just 2016?
Look at that ugly yield curve. Get the automatic external defibrillator out boys... http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/yield_historical.shtml
30-yr tails off, despite their earlier efforts to prop up the newborn as the next contender (har)! Although, as posted in May, all yields are up with the curious exceptions of both the 1 month and the 30 year. How can they simultaneously be going down? The shadow knows.
(hint, the 30 yr really just turned; re-introduced this year after many years absent, it found external support, but hasn't lasted..
The US dollar actually had a very strong week. Technically, it will meet resistance soon at 85.75, the 50 DMA. If the dollar cannot bullishly pierce that resistance, the buck may head to last summer's double bottom off 83.6
Corporate Earnings Reports Growth rate for corporate earnings is up almost 16%. Incredible really. Too incredible. What do you think they'll do for an encore in the third quarter - sprout wings?
Annual Performance: Year to Date Dow: Up 3.5% Nasdaq: Down 6.7% S&P up 1.5%.
Another below-average year performance for your investments, and another above-average year for the forces working against your purchasing power.
Election Rally Rally for who? The incumbents and their track record? The administration's stellar foreign policy record? The oppositions ability to actually propose something resembling actual difference of opinion? Let 'em all go ala Lieberman.
2. Seasonals and Technicals
Major Indices The Dow Jones Utilities Index (^DJU) has spikes up in the last four weeks, as is to be expected with the pause in interest rate hikes. The DJU should trade like a bond. Bonds have not, for over two years now, believed that there is any wage pressure in the pipeline. This is just one reason why the30yr bond has not moved up despite 17 consecutive hikes in the short term fed funds rate. So, the bonds will suck money out of the equities.
Look at the double top in the ^DJT Dow Jones Transport Index. Not good. Even worse is the last six week performance, in a free-fall and down 20%! Even worse than that, there is no correlation with the ^DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI). So you know the Plunge Protection Team (Working Group) is propping up the DJI for the newscasters to read on their 10minute 'finance' segment for all we wage-slaves to hear on our morning and evening commutes. The reality is, this negative divergence between the DJI and the DJT is very bearish. The 200-day moving average (DMA) support only provided the briefest respite on the DJT plummet. The DJI, even given the obvious support, still looks it will again penetrate through the 50 day to the downside. Meanwhile the 50 day average itself, which already bearishly pierced through the 100 day support, now is testing the 200-day support. I suppose we will get a 2 day or so rally, and then the 50 will pierce the 200 and the DJI will now begin its freefall. The DJI 200DMA has been in an uptrend for 36 months now, a great run - a nice cyclical bull in this secular bear, and now it looks over.
Interesting, the Nasdaq, which has performed the worse this year of all the major US indices, is closer to support - the bottom of the trend line that has held since October.
Oil Entering the seasonally weak period. However, that certainly wasn't the case last year. It can't go wrong two years in a row, can it? The supply chain just doesn't seem to be what it once was - the gravy train greasing all of our wheels. Decline in oil - especially gasoline prices, will supply some liquidity that the market seems to be calling for. Decreases in oil price could prove a bright point. Of course, plenty of analysts have been calling for lower oil prices for a solid year now, and none of them have been right for more than three weeks in a row. Also, natural gas has been gettin' uppity, again.
Metals The metals are moving out of the bearish summer blah period and entering the bullish period of the year. However, the stocks -especially gold - are not confirming (see recent posts on GLE for just one example), not conforming, and providing yet another negative divergence from the underlying commodity prices, which have done very well in the same 4-6 week period that I've been looking at. The seasonals support another nice bounce in metals, but I am not as sure this time around. So, gold is iffy - perhaps stays rangebound for the next couple weeks. After that, gold should again start performing. Copper and silver have continued strong. The base metal have actually outperformed the precious metals recently.
The HUI put in a large head and shoulders formation and now looks to trade off that pattern down through the higher rail of support that had formed the top of the andrew's pitchform/trend channel that held since April of this year. Has been a nice run at any rate and the gravity is getting stronger as the HUI approaches the 50 day EMA support once again. This 50 has held steady all year. Price action contained within a very nice symmetrical triangle must break out one way or another. However, I am not nearly so confident on the gold stocks. Of course, the four and eight year gold market cycles still provide great support, and the secular bull is probably note even half over (year seven of 16). An alternate take: gold trades down into options expiry, trading along the bottom of the triangle and then breaks through to the upside, setting up a nice leg up. Maybe 40% chance of this bullish play.
I am much more positive on silver. Note my new long silver position at 10.95 from July 27; we hit 12.37 this week before the sell-off in the last couple daze.
3. News
Hezbollah Wins The markets do not like the news. The defeat for the Israeli army is their first, and that changes the entire dynamic in the middle east, not very stable in the last 3-years anyway. A loss for the Israeli army is a loss for the US policy, standing in the world, dollar and market.
The strong retails sales figures (for july, up 1.4%) reflected the government economist penchant for dreaming up numbers out of thin air, nothing more. Take a look at the S&P Retail Index [^RLX] and tell me that the three year party isn't over and the guests are stumbling along now trying to find their way to a safe place to sleep it off for a few quarters. If the retails figures announced on the 11th actually held any water, that would actually be worse than the standard mistating/restating/bury the story on the back of page 126 cycle that the government figures typically receive. The reason: strong retail sales amongst a turn down of the index is yet another bearish divergence.
Terror Plot The market sold off on the news that the terror plot was broken up. Obviously, the market didn't believe this particular dog and pony show. Neither do I. They 'improve' security when the event happens, and they 'improve' security when there is a 'near-miss' event. So, when do they lower security and return to the freedom of movement actually demanded by free men and women? Guess there is no plan for that. Not many free men or women left for that matter anyway.
Just as likely, the airplane drama was a false flag and the real event will happen in a month or two...
And Iraq? The generals last week broke last year's story about the continuing low grade civil war now in its second year. Guess the same pre-war intelligence about the yellow cake and other WMD forgot to notice that Iraq was pieced together by the british using three distinctly separate ethnic and political groups. These groups were held together by the threat of a gun leveled by an autocrat. Now that the autocrat has been replaced by several hundred thousand guns yielded by the mini-crats, thangs are, um - a little less than stable? Perhaps the reason the utility stocks are strengthening in this country is that everybody now realizes we haven't built anything resembling an infrastructure in Iraq, and perhaps there's a chance to spend some time and money on our own crumbling infrastructure back here.
Yep, supposedly those crazy saudis took down our towers and 3,000 innocents on 911. So what did we do? Kill another 2,600 of our men and women, (and at least keeping another 125,000 off the unemployment rolls) And kill or maim another couple hundred thousand Iraqi civilians who would rather just get up in the morning and go to work. And destroy Iraq's infrastructure and promise to go another 50 years in hock to the chinese and japanese to pay for it all. Yep, we really showed them - eh?
Just as the Israeli air raids in Baalbeck caused damage to the ancient Roman temple of Bacchus, and the US mucked up much of the cradle of civilization between the Tigris and the Euphrates, the clear aim of the war drones one: waging anarchy against our civilization.
So, I don't know how many points the dow will go up or down in the next few weeks. But I do suspect the next 2,000 points will be in the down direction.
So, here's hoping I'm wrong. Nobody wishes that more than I...
8.11.06 Kovels changes their website and says I need a new password. I never heard of that before, looks like they lost this browser.
8.10.06 Glencairn Gold AMEX:GLE reports nice results Turns a profit, cost per ounce of gold is down and price realized per ounce is up. Still, the overall market is not being kind to any good news at the current time.
^DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average ^DJT Dow Jones Transport Index
8.2.06 glencairn GLE:AMEX Breaks out.
Through the 50DEMA, OBV bounces, through previous gap resistance, on large volume, etc. Look with your own eyes…
8.2.06 Silver: Negative divergence btw Physical and Paper (or wholesale and retail)
Although the wholesale (futures and spot) markets show strong silver demand based upon recent (two week) increase in POS, the price realized for physical at the last consumer point of sale end of the retail market has not reflected this action. I base this on weak figures realized for junk silver at auctions over the same period (ebay et. al.).
(we have not sold gold over the same period, so do not have that piece of analysis available)
7.29.06 Went to the Fremont Coin Show on Saturday The venue is the Elks club. Although the space is rather small, the hall maintains the bonus of maintaining an active bar and grill. Since the floor is pretty packed, you have trouble moving around the narrow and crowded aisles. This may provide the appearance that more people are there than the numbers would verify.
I found not only the crowd but the dealers were an older crowd that attended this show (compared to the Vallejo, Santa Clara, and San Jose shows earlier this year). Several talked about retirement. There were not as many young numismatist that you find at a larger show. One, benefit of a smaller show is that the display cases set up by the host coin club form a more prominent portion of the bourse and garner more attention then they might at a larger hall, deserved imho.
7.27.06 Went long silver at 10.95. See what happens...
7.27.06 Price of gold in USD is up 50% in last 52 weeks, give or take.
That performance is an aberration, improbable, and generally not supposed to happen. All in all, just a sign - showing the way and lighting the path where further events yet shall unfold.
Other signs: Dow Transports not participating in this rally - negative divergence.
Yesterday at the courthouse, auction for houses in default. Nobody showed up at the auction. Five of the seven were pulled b.c. owners declared bankruptcy.
Our current man on the mound - Stagflation - is just the middle inning reliever. A solid workhorse. A consummate and proven journeyman known to have enough in the tank to burn up a few innings. He's just getting warmed up, really, and will throw some nasty sliders and curves toward poor ol' baffled mr. market and especially Joe and Jane wage-earner.
The setup man is yet to come.
And the closer...
7.20.2006 The proposed bill to 'Remove the darned penny from circulation' Actually has a much deeper and more damaging purpose: To put the US Mint and other US Department of Treasury Operations (Bureau of Engraving and Printing) under the control of a private corporation, the Federal Reserve. The pol introducing this 'legislation', Jim Kolbe of AZ, is committing treason. No other description of this activity need apply (for a rapidly shrinking job pool) .
7.16.06 Our bankrupt national corporation Professor Laurence Kotlikoff speaks the mind of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.
Essentially, he pointed out that the USA, inc. is bankrupt; and proves it. Of course, this was the goal and benchmark of the Federal Reserve when it was established in 1913. Mission Accomplished!
7.16.06 Housing Market Index
Represents the beating that housing builders have taken in the market and the brutality that new home sales people have taken in the field. One major western homebuilder sold 40 homes in their market so far this year, after selling over 220 this same period last year.
Here is a graphic representation: http://bullandbearwise.com/HousingMarketIndChart.asp
7.13.06 Bonds get a shot in the arm.
Today: as the markets panic and folks flee to the exist, some fly straight into the bond market. The yield has a tradeable drop even as the 10year TIPS results come out today. Results: bid coverage down the porcelain throne and a drop in almost 30 basis points. Nobody wanted the gruel served today.
So, where exactly are those dealers afraid of the 'wage inflation' the Fed keeps rambling on (dramatizing) about!
Short term (since May), bonds and dollar rose off a double bottom, and have jut recently filled the upside gap. |
